No - Such Propaganda Delusions Will Not Win The War
June 07, 2023
I do not know what Washington Post columnist David Ignatius or the Biden administration officials he is talking to are smoking, but it must be extraordinary strong stuff:
Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front. That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast — severing the land bridge.
The 'thrust' was against a small Russian held salient in the front line near Velyka Novosilka at the center of this map.
Zooming in we see the current frontline as depicted by the Ukraine friendly LiveUAmap.
Using the 'Time' feature of that map we can see the front line in the same area one week ago.
Using the scale at the bottom right of the map we can tell that the sole total 'progress' of the Ukrainian forces on the upper left was about two kilometers deep on a four kilometer wide front. They conquered two tree lines between open fields. Not one settlement of farm was 'liberated' by those forces.
Here is the same place depicted on the map of the pro-Ukrainian neoconservative Institute for the Study of War.
It shows the same story. Again the 'progress' of the Ukrainian forces was limited to some treelines between flat open fields.
It came at enormous cost:
During the three days of combat operations in all directions Ukraine lost up to 3,715 men, 52 tanks and 207 armored combat vehicles, 134 trucks, 48 field artillery guns, as well as five aircraft, two helicopters and 53 drones.Russia’s losses were immeasurably smaller: "Altogether 71 servicemen of the combined group of forces were killed and 210 others wounded while repulsing the enemy offensive. Fifteen tanks, nine infantry fighting vehicles, two trucks and nine guns were taken out."
That's Russian propaganda you say? Yes, you may want to cut those numbers in half to get to the real ones. They are still enormous.
Gilbert Doctorow notes that The Ukrainian Army is run not by the Generals but by the PR Department. Accordingly the demolition of Kakhovka dam is a diversion from the disastrous losses of the last few days.
The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the dam damage was done to allow for the transfer of Ukrainian forces (machine translation):
"Tonight, the Kiev regime committed another terrorist crime: the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station was blown up, which led to the flooding of large areas," he said.The minister added that the purpose of undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station by Kiev is to transfer units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from the Kherson direction to the offensive area.
He pointed out that the Kiev regime had blown up the structures of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. "The purpose of these actions, according to available data, is as follows. Having not achieved success in offensive operations, in order to strengthen its potential, the enemy intends to transfer units and equipment from the Kherson direction to the area of its offensive operations, thus significantly weakening its positions in the Kherson direction," Shoigu said.
I have a different reading of the situation. With the dam intact any large crossing of the lower Dnieper would be endangered by the ability of the other side to release water from the dam. With the dam blown up flooding will, for a week or two, turn the area along the river into a swamp. But after two weeks or so the water will be gone and a large crossing, without the danger of being flooded, will become possible. This reading is based on several reports of ferrying and bridging units being transferred to Ukraine:
Russia has depended upon unbridged waterways and other geographical features for a measure of security. As Ukrainian armored bridging units begin to emerge in battle, Russia will be challenged by the sudden emergence of fast-moving Ukrainian units in lightly-defended areas.Bridging units are really some of the last few pieces Ukraine requires to take the offensive. The fact that they are getting donated now can only be interpreted as a sign that American experts feel confident that Ukraine is finally ready to employ their new, highly-mobile equipment effectively, at scale, and in large offensive operations.
Then again - Shoigu will surely have better access to battlefield information than I do.
Back to Ignatius class delusions:
It might take weeks before the results of the Ukrainian campaign are clear, but Kyiv has already succeeded in expanding the stalemated fighting in Bakhmut, the bitterly contested eastern city that was ground zero throughout the winter.
Ahem - Ukraine was utterly defeated in Bakhmut and no longer holds any ground within that city.
If it wants to expand on that the Russians will surely welcome it to do so.
Posted by b on June 7, 2023 at 11:14 UTC | Permalink